Rabu, 20 Februari 2013

Trade systems on Forex


Trading with brokers. Foreign exchange brokers, unlike equity brokers, do not take positions for
themselves; they only service banks. Their roles are to bring together buyers and sellers in the market, to optimize the price they show to their customers and quickly, accurately, and faithfully executing the traders' orders.
The majority of the foreign exchange brokers execute business via phone using an open box system a microphone in front of the broker that continuously transmits everything he or she says on the direct phone lines to the speaker boxes in the banks. This way, all banks can hear all the deals being executed.

Because of the open box system used by brokers, a trader is able to hear all prices quoted; whether the bid
was hit or the offer taken; and the following price. What the trader will not be able to hear is the amounts of particular bids and offers and the names of the banks showing the prices. Prices are anonymous. The anonymity of the banks that are trading in the market ensures the market's efficiency, as all banks have a fair chance to trade.
Sometimes brokers charge a commission that is paid equally by the buyer and the seller. The fees are negotiated on an individual basis by the bank and the brokerage firm.
Brokers show their customers the prices made by other customers either two-way (bid and offer) prices or one way (bid or offer) prices from his or her customers. Traders show different prices because they "read" the market differently; they have different expectations and different interests. A broker who has more than one price on one or both sides will automatically optimize the price. In other words, the broker will always show the highest bid and the lowest offer. Therefore, the market has access to an optimal spread possible. Fundamental and technical analyses are used for forecasting the future direction of the
currency. A trader might test the market by hitting a bid for a small amount to see if there is any reaction.
Another advantage of the brokers' market is that brokers might provide a broader selection of banks to their customers. Some European and Asian banks have overnight desks so their orders are usually placed with brokers who can deal with the American banks, adding to the liquidity of the market.
Direct dealing. Direct dealing is based on trading reciprocity. A market maker—the bank making or quoting a price — expects the bank that is calling to reciprocate with respect to making a price when called upon. Direct dealing provides more trading discretion, as compared to dealing in the brokers' market. Sometimes traders take advantage of this characteristic.
Direct dealing used to be conducted mostly on the phone. Phone dealing was error-prone and slow. Dealing errors were difficult to prove and even more difficult to settle. Direct dealing was forever changed in the mid-1980s, by the introduction of dealing systems.
Dealing systems are on-line computers that link the contributing banks around the world on a one-on-one basis. The performance of dealing systems is characterized by speed, reliability, and safety. Dealing systems are continuously being improved in order to offer maximum support to the dealer's main function: trading. The software is rather reliable in picking up the big figure of the exchange rates and the standard value dates. In addition, it is extremely precise and fast in contacting other parties, switching among conversations, and accessing the database. The trader is in continuous visual contact with the information exchanged on the monitor. It is easier to see than hear this information, especially when switching among conversations.
Most banks use a combination of brokers and direct dealing systems. Both approaches reach the same banks, but not the same parties, because corporations, for instance, cannot deal in the brokers' market. Traders develop personal relationships with both brokers and traders in the markets, but select their trading medium based on price quality, not on personal feelings. The market share between dealing systems and brokers fluctuates based on market conditions. Fast market conditions are beneficial to dealing systems, whereas regular market conditions are more beneficial to brokers.
Matching systems. Unlike dealing systems, on which trading is not anonymous and is conducted on a one-on-one basis, matching systems are anonymous and individual traders deal against the rest of the market, similar to dealing in the brokers' market. However, unlike the brokers' market, there are no individuals to bring the prices to the market, and liquidity may be limited at times. Matching systems are well-suited for trading smaller amounts as well.
The dealing systems' characteristics of speed, reliability, and safety are replicated in the matching systems. In addition, credit lines are automatically managed by the systems. Traders input the total credit line for each counterparty. When the credit line has been reached, the system automatically 
disallows dealing with the particular party by displaying credit restrictions, or shows the trader only
the price made by banks that have open lines of credit. As soon as the credit line is restored, the system allows the bank to deal again. In the inter-bank market, traders deal directly with dealing systems, matching systems, and brokers in a complementary fashion. 

Kinds of major currencies


The U.S. Dollar. The United States dollar is the world's main currency - an universal measure to evaluate any other currency traded on Forex. All currencies are generally quoted in U.S. dollar terms. Under conditions of international economic and political unrest, the U.S. dollar is the main safe-haven currency, which was proven particularly well during the Southeast Asian crisis of 1997-1998. 

As it was indicated, the U.S. dollar became the leading currency toward the end of the Second
World War along the Breton Woods Accord, as the other currencies were virtually pegged against it. The introduction of the euro in 1999 reduced the dollar's importance only marginally.
The other major currencies traded against the U.S. dollar are the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, and Swiss franc.
The Euro. The euro was designed to become the premier currency in trading by simply being quoted in American terms. Like the U.S. dollar, the euro has a strong international presence stemming from members of the European Monetary Union. The currency remains plagued by unequal growth, high unemployment, and government resistance to structural changes. The pair was also weighed in 1999 and 2000 by outflows from foreign investors, particularly Japanese, who were forced to liquidate their losing investments in euro-denominated assets. Moreover, European money managers rebalanced their portfolios and reduced their euro exposure as their needs for hedging currency risk in Europe declined.
The Japanese Yen. The Japanese yen is the third most traded currency in the world; it has a much smaller international presence than the U.S. dollar or the euro. The yen is very liquid around the world, practically around the clock. The natural demand to trade the yen concentrated mostly among the Japanese keiretsu, the economic and financial conglomerates. The yen is much more sensitive to the fortunes of the Nikkei index, the Japanese stock market, and the real estate market.
The British Pound. Until the end of World War II, the pound was the currency of reference. The currency is heavily traded against the euro and the U.S. dollar, but has a spotty presence against other currencies. Prior to the introduction of the euro, both the pound benefited from any doubts about the currency convergence. After the introduction of the euro, Bank of England is attempting to bring the high U.K. rates closer to the lower rates in the euro zone. The pound could join the euro in the early 2000s, provided that the U.K. referendum is positive.
The Swiss Franc. The Swiss franc is the only currency of a major European country that belongs neither to the European Monetary Union nor to the G-7 countries. Although the Swiss economy is relatively small, the Swiss franc is one of the four major currencies, closely resembling the strength and quality of the Swiss economy and finance. Switzerland has a very close economic relationship with Germany, and thus to the euro zone. Therefore, in terms of political uncertainty in the East, the Swiss franc is favored generally over the euro.
Typically, it is believed that the Swiss franc is a stable currency. Actually, from a foreign exchange point of view, the Swiss franc closely resembles the patterns of the euro, but lacks its liquidity. As the demand for it exceeds supply, the Swiss franc can be more volatile than the euro.

Risks by the foreign exchange on Forex


As it was mentioned above the trading on the Forex is essentially risk-bearing. By the evaluation of the grade of a possible risk accounted should be the following kinds of it: exchange rate risk, interest rate risk, and credit risk, country risk.
Exchange rate risk. Exchange rate risk is the effect of the continuous shift in the worldwide market supply and demand balance on an outstanding foreign exchange position. For the period it is outstanding, the position will be subject to all the price changes.
The most popular measures to cut losses short and ride profitable positions that losses should be kept within manageable limits are the position limit and the loss limit. By the position limitation a maximum amount of a certain currency a trader is allowed to carry at any single time during the regular trading hours is to be established. The loss limit is a measure designed to avoid unsustainable losses made by traders by means of stop-loss levels setting.
Interest rate risk. Interest rate risk refers to the profit and loss generated by fluctuations in the forward spreads, along with forward amount mismatches and maturity gaps among transactions in the foreign exchange book. This risk is pertinent to currency swaps, forward outright, futures, and options (See below). To minimize interest rate risk, one sets limits on the total size of mismatches. A common approach is to separate the mismatches, based on their maturity dates, into up to six months and past six months. All the transactions are entered in computerized systems in order to calculate the positions for all the dates of the delivery, gains and losses. Continuous analysis of the interest rate environment is necessary to forecast any changes that may impact on the outstanding gaps.
Credit risk. Credit risk refers to the possibility that an outstanding currency position may not be repaid as agreed, due to a voluntary or involuntary action by a counter party. In these cases, trading occurs on regulated exchanges, such as the clearinghouse of Chicago. The following forms of credit risk are known:
1. Replacement risk occurs when counterparties of the failed bank find their books are subjected
to the danger not to get refunds from the bank, where appropriate accounts became unbalanced.
2. Settlement risk occurs because of the time zones on different continents. Consequently, currencies may be traded at the different price at different times during the trading day. Australian and New Zealand dollars are credited first, then Japanese yen, followed by the European currencies and ending with the U.S. dollar. Therefore, payment may be made to a party that will declare insolvency (or be declared insolvent) immediately after, but prior to executing its own payments.
Therefore in assessing the credit risk, end users must consider not only the market value of their currency portfolios, but also the potential exposure of these portfolios. The potential exposure may be determined through probability analysis over the time to maturity of the outstanding position. The computerized systems currently available are very useful in implementing credit risk policies. Credit lines are easily monitored. In addition, the matching systems introduced in foreign exchange since April 1993 are used by traders for credit policy implementation as well. Traders input the total line of credit for a specific counterparty. During the trading session, the line of credit is automatically adjusted. If the line is fully used, the system will prevent the trader from further dealing with that counterparty. After maturity, the credit line reverts to its original level.
Dictatorship risk. Dictatorship (sovereign) risk refers to the government's interference in the Forex activity. Although theoretically present in all foreign exchange instruments, currency futures are, for all practical purposes, excepted from country risk, because the major currency futures markets are located in the USA. Hence, traders have to realize that kind of the risk and be in state to account possible administrative restrictions. 

Senin, 18 Februari 2013

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